When movies track this big as the seventh "Harry Potter" installment, the upside is hard to predict.
But with Warners opening "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1" in 4,125 locations -- and on around 12,000 screens -- in the U.S. and Canada Friday, and tracking estimates predicting a three-day opening gross of at least $130 million, no box-office record seems too lofty.
What could be up for grabs this weekend:
>> The $30 million midnight-opening mark set by Summit Entertainment's "Twilight Saga: Eclipse" last June. "Potter 7" has sold out so many midnight shows through advanced ticket outlets like Fandango and MovieTickets.com that many of the 3,600 theaters presenting midnight shows Friday morning have added 3 a.m. engagements.
>> The $158.4 million three-day-opening record established by Warner's "The Dark Knight" back in July 2008. Again, advanced ticket sales are a good indicator of "Potter's" potential, with the Fandango and MovieTickets reporting that, together, they have sold out 5,200 engagements so far.
>> IMAX officials, meanwhile, say its pre-sale figures were approaching $10 million on Thursday, with the film set to easily surpass "Alice in Wonderland's" $15 million three-day-opening record on the big-screen circuit.
With one tracking service reporting that 95 percent of moviegoers are aware of the film, and that an almost equally-unheard-of 61 percent of "definite interest" in seeing it, one rival-studio research executive said, "It's very easy to be off with something like this. When you get to 45 percent or above (listing the film as their) first choice, there's really no way to tell where it'll end up."
One thing seems certain: "Deathly Hallows 1" will have the biggest "Potter" opening of all time, very likely besting the $102.7 million November 2005 debut performance of "Goblet of Fire."
Foreign totals should be even more massive, with the movie opening in the bulk of international territories over the weekend, as well. "Potter" films typically take in about two-thirds of their global gross in the foreign theatrical market.
No matter how high "Potter" goes this weekend, competition should be light.
Only one other film opens wide, with Lionsgate Paul Haggis film "The Next Three Days" debuting at 2,564 locations and predicted to gross just under $10 million this weekend.
Shot for just over $30 million, Lionsgate mitigated much of its risk with around $25 million in international sales, but will need serious playability for the film to make money.
The PG-13-rated thriller stars Russell Crowe as a husband who attempts to break his wrongly-convicted wife (Elizabeth Banks) out of prison.
The film is garnering a tepid 46 percent fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes -- and worse, only 31 percent "definite interest" among moviegoers, according to one tracking service.
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