'On the Road' Oscar Talk From Hitfix and Scott Feinberg

June is still two days away, but with the 2011 movie season edging close to the halfway mark, it's becoming painfully apparent Hollywood is in for one humdinger of a competitive awards season. The fireworks won't really begin until the Venice/Telluride/Toronto triumvirate of festivals at the beginning of September, but with studios setting their fourth quarter release dates, hot Cannes titles getting acquired and buzz leaking about what contenders have already been screened it's hard not to see the wheels already in motion. Taking all that into account, here are 10 topics of interest that should hold you over until August. And besides, it's never really to early to talk Oscar, is it?

It's a year of ingenues
We'll talk about Ms. Streep's chances at finally winning a third best actress prize in a minute, but 2012 is clearly looking like the younger ladies could dominate both acting races. The list of contenders includes Elizabeth Olsen ("Martha Marcy May Marlene"), Felicity Jones ("Like Crazy"), Jennifer Lawrence ("Like Crazy"), Kristen Stewart ("On the Road"), Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn"), Kirsten Dunst ("Melancholia"), Bryce Dallas Howard ("The Help"), Jessica Chastain ("The Help," "Take Shelter"), Keira Knightley ("A Dangerous Method"), Scarlett Johansson ("We Brought a Zoo"), Evan Rachel Wood ("The Ides of March") and Anna Kendrick ("50/50"). Needless to say, the roles for ladies have much improved over the past 12 months.

The most competitive best picture field in years?
After "The Blind Side" made the field of ten nominees in 2010, there were many that said it would be difficult to find enough worthy films in the expanded best picture category. The second year of the expansion proved that theory false with a number of significant films being left out in the cold. This year, quality prestige films are on a comeback trail. Look at this preliminary list of 28 possible contenders (those in bold have already screened).

"Crazy Stupid Love," "J. Edgar," "The Descendants," "We Built A Zoo" (Cameron Crowe), "Like Crazy," "Take Shelter," "My Weekend With Marilyn," "The Iron Lady," "War Horse" (Spielberg), "Hugo Cabret" (Martin Scorsese), "Moneyball," "Dream House" (Jim Sheridan), "Midnight in Paris," "Drive," "The Tree of Life," "Young Adult" (Jason Reitman), "50/50," "The Artist," "Contagion" (Steven Soderbergh), "Ides of March" (Clooney), "The Guard," "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" (Stephen Daldry), "Gods of Carnage" (Roman Polanski), "On the Road" (Walter Salles), "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" (Tomas Alfredson), "In the Land of Blood and Honey" (Angelina Jolie), "A Dangerous Method" (David Cronenberg).


SCOTT FEINBERG’S INITIAL FORECAST FOR 2011 ACADEMY AWARDS

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Scarlett Johansson (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Emily Watson (“War Horse”)
Judi Dench (“J. Edgar”)
Marisa Tomei (“The Ides of March”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“The Ides of March”)
Major Threats
Naomi Watts (“J. Edgar”)
Anna Kendrick (“50/50”)
Vanessa Redgrave (“Coriolanus”)
Robin Wright (“Moneyball”)
Viola Davis (“The Help”)
Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Catherine Keener (“Maladies”)
Jessica Chastain (“Take Shelter”)
Elle Fanning (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Stephanie Szotak (“We Bought a Zoo”)
Charlotte Rampling (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Emily Mortimer (“Hugo Cabret”)
Possibilities
Judi Dench (“My Week with Marilyn”)
Charlotte Rampling (“Melancholia”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Tree of Life”)
Judy Davis (“The Eye of the Storm”)
Jessica Chastain (“The Wettest County in the World”)
Chloe Moretz (“Hugo Cabret”)
Shailene Woodley (“The Descendants”)
Amara Miller (“The Descendants”)
Lea Thompson (“J. Edgar”)
Alexandra Roach (“The Iron Lady”)
Melanie Laurent (“Beginners”)
Demi Moore (“Another Happy Day”)
Kathryn Morris (“Moneyball”)
Amy Ryan (“Win Win”)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Amy Adams (“On the Road”)
Kirsten Dunst (“On the Road”)
Kristen Stewart (“On the Road”)
Sarah Gadon (“A Dangerous Method”)
Orianna Herman (“Rid of Me”)
Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”)
Mia Wasikowska (“Albert Nobbs”)


He also included "On the Road" in the Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Picture categories.

sources hitfix.com, scottfeinberg.com - via @KstewAngel and fiercebitchstew